AS THE European countries are relaxing COVID-19 restrictions and opening borders for traveling and tourism, new hotspots appear around the world, which sparks fears of the second wave.

Last week, China reported the largest increase in the newly confirmed coronavirus cases in the previous months. China's new hotspot has been linked with the Xinfadi food market in Beijing. 

"Last week, China reported a number of new coronavirus cases in Beijing, after more than 50 days without new cases. More than 100 cases have now been confirmed," warned the head of the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in a video conference held on Monday. 

With a new hotspot emerging, China closed the market and put the nearby buildings in quarantine. 

The second wave in Israel 

In Iran, the death toll due to COVID-19 has exceeded 100 for the first time since April 13, with a total death toll exceeding 8,800.

The Israeli head of health services at the Ministry of Health Sigal Sadetzky told Knesset lawmakers that Israel sees the start of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Her remarks came as a reaction to a recent spike in daily cases, which passed the 200 marks on June 11 and June 12 (see the chart below).

The Israeli government has warned that if the public does not adhere to social distancing and hygiene orders, it may have to reapply some lockdown measures.

After the daily number of new cases was under 50 for the large part of May, Macedonia marks a significant rise from the beginning of June, so the number doesn't fall under 100 in the last five days (see the chart below).

Bosnia and Herzegovina also mark a rise in coronavirus cases, and as many as 147 new cases have been confirmed. 

At the same time, the first wave of COVID-19 is spreading across Latin America, the Middle East, and more and more parts of Africa. The total number of coronavirus cases in the world exceeded eight million on Monday, with a death toll of around 436,000. 

What's the situation with Croatia?

With the opening of European borders, more and more tourists are starting to arrive in Croatia in the last couple of days. According to the Tourism Minister Gari Cappelli, there are currently 115,000 tourists in Croatia; mostly domestic travelers (45%), tourists from Slovenia (34%), Germany (15%), Austria (12%), and the Chech Republic, and they mainly stay in Istria, Primorje-Gorski Kotar, and Zadar County. Around 20,000 tourists entered Croatia in the last 24 hours. 

It's evident that most tourists from quite safe countries are coming to Croatia. However, we still cannot act as if the virus is gone, or there's no danger of the second wave outbreak. There have also been new coronavirus cases in Croatia for the past days. Two cases in Zagreb have been reported on Monday, and two yesterday. 

A second wave is probable next fall, but even possible during summer 

Today, after broadening our knowledge about COVID-19 and its causative agent SARS-CoV-2, we know better what to expect. 

The WHO and the world epidemiologists warn about the slim chances of the virus being completely stopped and an increasing probability of the second wave. Today we know that climate conditions affect the spread of SARS-CoV-2, especially humidity and UV rays. However, we also know that it per se isn't enough to stop the virus because it's new in the population, meaning that not many people acquired immunity. In other words, a second wave is more probable next fall, but also possible during the summer.

Croats are more and more acting as if COVID-19 never existed

The Croatian Coronavirus Task Force and the Ministry of Health chose recommendations instead of bans, but, unfortunately, it seems that fewer and fewer people are adhering to social distancing restrictions. For example, when the Summer on Stross (a manifestation in the Strossmayer Promenade in Zagreb) was opened last weekend, famous Croatian musician and singer Jimmy Stanic gathered an audience of a couple of hundred people. The audience consisted of mostly an older population. Despite many of them belonging to at-risk groups, hardly a Pekinese could get through the audience, let alone a person. At the same time, all of them were practically wearing no masks.

They probably think there's no point in keeping a social distance when the virus is gone. But experts are persistently warning that with that attitude and tourists coming from abroad, the virus could return, in which case it could be too late for salvaging the situation by respecting the rudimentary social distancing measures and hygiene. If a second wave happens, perhaps we'll have to enforce the lockdown again, although it most certainly won't be as strict as the first one. 

When asked by different media reporters a week ago whether the lockdown would be imposed in case of the second wave, our epidemiologist Bernard Kaic resolutely answered - yes. 

That's to be expected because of the lack of a vaccine and drugs. The spread of the virus is successfully stopped only with the epidemiological measures of social distancing and hygiene. 

It's time for preparations, and not for a celebration 

Similar warnings came from the WHO European region. European countries should prepare for the deadly second wave of coronavirus infections because the pandemic is not over, said the highest-rank official of the WHO in Europe. 

In an interview with The Telegraph, Hans Kluge, the WHO Director for Europe, sent a stern warning to the countries that started relaxing its lockdown rules, pointing out it's "time for preparations, not for a celebration."

Kluge pointed out that even though COVID-19 cases in countries such as the UK, France, and Italy had started to drop, it doesn't mean that the pandemic had ended. 

Markotic also warned about the consequences of the excessive relaxation

That Croatia has relaxed more than it should, was also warned by professor Alemka Markotic, the head of University Hospital for Infectious Diseases Fran Mihaljevic. She pointed out the realistic expectation of more coronavirus cases because COVID-19 is everywhere in our surroundings. 

"What's important is that our population remains responsible and disciplined as they were before. We've slacked off a bit, but people needed that dose of relaxation. However, I think that we'll have to start adhering to the rules again if we want a nice summer and vacation to all of us," said Markotic. 

Capak: The second wave is inevitable, but a complete lockdown won't be necessary anymore

The head of the Croatian Public Health Institute Krunoslav Capak has also pointed out on many occasions that the second wave is certain.  

"Only two scenarios are possible if the virus doesn't disappear or change - the collective immunity or vaccination. The vaccination is not very likely within a year. 

There will be a pause during the summer. If the virus is seasonal, such as the flu, it's very likely for a second wave to happen in fall. If we continue with this dynamic, enough at-risk people will remain to start the epidemic again," said Capak in an interview for AIJazeer in May. 

But like most of the Croatian and world experts, Capak believes that a complete lockdown won't be necessary. 

Germany is ready to avoid the second wave

It's interesting that the German officials, despite some hotspots that emerged in their country last week, and the basic reproduction number R0 has increased, still believe that they're ready to avoid the second wave. 

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz claimed that the absence of a vaccine means that social distancing measures should be conducted seriously, as well as testing and contact tracing of the infected people. 

"We live with the virus, which is now the new normal. It'll change as soon as we have new medical therapies and the vaccine," said Scholz. 

"As long as that's not the case, we have to organize our lives to avoid a second wave," he warned. He also added that Germany has "very high" chances of avoiding the second wave. 

There's no complete turning back to the old life in Germany

In Germany, which was quite heavily impacted by COVID-19, life really does take on the features of the new normal; there's no going back to the old life. 

Many bars and night clubs in Berlin, which were usually opened until morning, now close at 11 PM. Temperature measuring is mandatory in many gyms, chairs are removed in theatres to maintain social distancing, and these days an app for coronavirus tracking is being introduced. 

Exhaustion of people, the politicization of the Croatian Coronavirus Task Force, relativization...

Croatia should follow a similar example, but it seems that the successful termination of the virus gave the wrong impression that COVID-19 isn't a particularly dangerous disease. 

Epidemiologist Branko Kolaric from the Faculty of Medicine in Rijeka isn't satisfied with people's behavior. 

"I'm also witnessing the queues in front of the banks, in public transport, in open spaces. I believe that people are already exhausted, and the politicization of the Coronavirus Task Force's recommendations resulted in the loss of faith in adhering to the measures. We can hear from some public figures that the whole situation is made-up and exaggerated, which is very harmful. Luckily, respiratory viruses are transmitted less effectively during the summer months, so I hope for summer without new hotspots, despite the relaxation of the measures", said Kolaric. 

Beros about the lockdown in case of a second wave: No one knows what's going to happen

According to the warnings of world's experts and organizations, as well as recent experiences in the world, we can conclude that not adhering to the epidemiological measures could soon lead to a lockdown which is in nobody's interest, especially the economy. Those measures probably won't be as strict as they were in the first wave, but it's hard to predict what it's going to look like. It'll depend on the situation. 

Health Minister Vili Beros recently spoke to Index and said that the reaction on the second wave shouldn't be a complete lockdown, especially if the virus doesn't mutate in the meantime. 

"We implemented a lockdown in the first wave because we didn't know what was happening, we only saw what was happening in Italy, and we didn't possess the knowledge we have today," Beros said. 

He also pointed out that he still cannot predict the course of events in the future.

"No one knows," he admitted.